On May 14, the Public Health and Economic Emergency Commission unanimously voted to send a letter of support endorsing the governor’s plan to transition most of the state to the low (yellow) risk phase outlined in the state’s phased guidelines and the Utah Leads Together Plan, which includes a targeted plan to help those who are most vulnerable to COVID-19.
The Commission’s goal is to make data-driven recommendations in consultation with economic advisors and elected officials that protect vulnerable populations and allow the state to carefully transition to a lower risk status. Some increase in COVID-19 cases is expected as the state transitions phases. However, the metrics driving recommendations and decisions include hospital utilization rates, the transmission rate and rate of community spread, as well as new insights about high-risk populations.
The Commission reemphasizes that the low (yellow) phase does not apply to vulnerable populations. High-risk individuals should continue to follow the guidelines listed in the high-risk (red) phase.
Utah’s COVID-19 patient fatality data as of May 11:
94 percent of individuals who have passed away in Utah were age 65 or older and/or in a high-risk category, as defined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which was adopted by the Commission’s Medical Advisory Team Working Group.
74 years is the median age of individuals who have passed away from COVID-19 in the state.
70.2 percent of fatalities were age 65 or older.
75 percent of fatalities had at least one underlying health risk factor.
“Since the beginning of the pandemic, Utah has made decisions based on data,” said Jefferson Burton, co-chair of the Commission. “After carefully reviewing data and trends over the past several weeks, we feel the state is ready to move into the next phase of the Utah Leads Together plan. This was not an emotional decision, but one of careful consideration.”
“Utah has been more vigilant than almost any other state in testing and data gathering,” said Sen. Dan Hemmert, co-chair the Commission. “The Commission is using real-time data to drive recommendations. Protecting the vulnerable among us must remain a top priority as we transition into the low-risk phase. While data indicates most people will recover from COVID-19, we all must be vigilant in protecting at-risk individuals.”
Information about key factors and high-risk populations are below.
Key factors the Commission is utilizing:
Hospital Utilization Rates: Hospital bed utilization is a primary indicator of the strain on the state’s healthcare capacity. ICU hospital bed utilization under 60 percent for more than 14 consecutive days indicates an adequate level of stability. The state’s intensive care unit (ICU) utilization rate has been less than 60 percent for more than 21 consecutive days. Projected ICU utilization for the next 14 days is also well below the established 90 percent benchmark.
The goal is to keep hospitalization rates below 60 percent in case of a surge in COVID-19 hospitalization.
Current hospitalization in Utah as of May 13
ICU
Total ICU utilization has not exceeded 60 percent for the past 21 days.
ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patients have not exceeded 11 percent of total capacity for the past 19 days.
47 percent of ICU beds are currently occupied by non-COVID-19 patients.
Non-ICU
Non-ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patients have not exceeded 4 percent of total capacity the past 21 days.
43 percent of non-ICU beds are occupied by non-COVID-19 patients, which remains substantially unchanged since the resumption of some elective procedures.
Utah COVID-19 hospitalization data as of May 12:
99 lab-confirmed COVID-19 cases are currently hospitalized.
558 cumulative total, which represents 8.7 percent of all confirmed cases.
29 percent of those hospitalized are 65 or older.
25 percent of positive cases who are 65 or older were hospitalized.
Individuals over 65 are almost four times more likely than those under 65 to be hospitalized if infected with COVID-19.
Of those cases where the data is available, 87* percent of those hospitalized are in the high-risk category due to age or pre-existing condition.
*Age/pre-existing condition data is available for 422 of the 558 hospitalized cases.
Transmission Proxy Rate: Transmission rates indicate how quickly the virus is spreading and provide insight into whether preventative policies effectively limit the spread. Transmission rates show, on average, how many additional people a single infected individual is infecting. A transmission rate with a ratio at or near 1:1 for 7-14 consecutive days indicates an adequate level of stability. The state’s transmission rate has been between 1.0 and 1.5 for more than 21 consecutive days.
Community Spread: Community spread represents cases with an unknown source of infection. Lower rates of community spread mean that contact tracers are more likely to be able to find, contact and quarantine individuals who were exposed to the virus, limiting further spread. A stable rate of community spread would be indicated by exposure from known contacts remaining above 60 percent, and above 85 percent in the best case, in the past 14 days (cases still under investigation are removed). The exposure from known contacts has been at or above 80 percent for 28 consecutive days.
High-risk populations include:
Individuals in Long Term Care Facilities: Individuals in long-term care facilities, specifically nursing homes, are at the highest risk of COVID-19 mortality. As of last week, nearly half of Utah’s fatalities were associated with care facilities, with 37 percent being residents of long-term care facilities.
Hispanics/Latinos: In Utah, the current infection and death rate shows a high disproportion rate among Hispanics/Latinos. Hispanics/Latinos makeup 14.2 percent of Utah’s population and account for 37.9 percent of the state’s COVID-19 cases. Among all Utahns, 0.56 percent of Hispanics/Latinos are infected, while the average statewide infection rate is 0.21 percent based on testing to date. Large scale field testing, which is in the process of being conducted, will provide a better understanding.
Individuals with Comorbidities: Individuals with comorbidities are at a higher risk of death if infected. Comorbidities include cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, hypertension and cancer.
###
Public Health and Economic Emergency Commission Members
Jefferson Burton, Department of Health, co-chair
Sen. Dan Hemmert, co-chair
President Stuart Adams
Rep. Mike Schultz
Brandy Grace, Utah Association of Counties
Steve Starks, Larry H. Miller Corporation
Dr. Michael Good, University of Utah Health
Brian Dunn, Steward Healthcare
Steve Starks, Larry H. Miller Corporation
Derek Miller, Salt Lake Chamber of Commerce
Mark Bouchard, Community Leader
Tags: data points, Key factors the Commission is utilizing:, Public Health and Economic Emergency Commission, yellow phase